Globalairlineaccidentreviewof2009ByDavidLearmountAirlinesafetyin2009,judgedbythenumberoffatalaccidents,wasalittlebetterthantheaverageforthedecade.Betterstill,thisfirst10yearsofthe21stcentury,takenasawhole,hasseenthelowestaccidentratesinaviationhistorybyaconsiderablemargin.ThebadnewsisthattheconstantimprovementinsafetythathastakenplaceeachdecadesincetheWrightBrothersisnowstagnating.Thisshowsinthefactthat,judgingbyfatalaccidentnumbers,therewasastepchangeinsafetyperformancearoundtheyear2000,buttherehasbeenvirtuallynoimprovementinsafetyinthe10yearsfrom2000to2009.In2009therewere28fatalairlineaccidentsand749fatalitiesacrossallsectorsoftheglobalairlineindustry,whichcomparesrespectivelywith34and583forthepreviousyear.Butsincethebeginningofthedecade,andparticularlysince2003,thenumberofannualfatalairlineaccidentshasalmostlevelledout,and2009figurescontinuethistrend.tInMarchthisFedExBoeingMD-11FflippedontoitsbackwhenthepilotlostcontrolduringanormallandingattemptStatisticalanalysis,whenthenumberofdeparturesfortheyearisconfirmed,willshowaccidentratestohaveimprovedlessthanthatimpliedbytheeventnumbersalone,becausetheamountoftrafficlastyeardroppedsignificantlycomparedwith2008figures.Meanwhile,aFlightSafetyFoundationanalysisofglobalaccidentratesforWestern-builtjetairlinersoverthepast20yearsdemonstratesthattheaveragefigureforthenoughtiesdecadeshowsamarkedimprovementcomparedwiththeaverageforthe1990s.TheFSF'srate,whichincludesserious(butnotnecessarilyfatal)accidentsinvolvingWestern-builtjets,showsthattherateforthe1990sasawholewas1.18eventspermilliondepartures,whichcompareswith0.57forthenoughties.Butthevaryingtrendswithinthose20years,iftheyarebrokenupintofive-yearperiods,arerevealing:1990-94:1.32seriousaccidentspermilliondepartures.1995-99:1.06.2000-04:0.58.2005-09:0.55.Thosefiguresshowanaccidentratereductionof19.6%betweentheaverageforthefirstandsecondhalfofthe1990s.Inthenoughties,thedifferencebetweenthefirstandsecondhalvesisa5%ratereduction.Butthetrulydramaticdifferenceappearedduringthedecadefrom1995to2004.Inthefiveyearsbefore2000theratewas1.06,andinthefollowingfiveyearsthatfigurenearlyhalvedto0.58.Sotherelevantquestionisthis:whathappenedinthelastfiveyearsofthetwentiethcenturyandthefirstfiveofthisonethatcausedsuchahugeimprovementinsafety?Alookatthechangesthattookplaceinsafetymanagementthinkingandactionintherun-uptotheyear2000givetheanswer.Duringthelate1980sandearly1990stherapidlyadvancingabilitytogatheraccidentdataforcomputeranalysisbegantotransformstrategicsafetymanagementthinking.Ratherthanbasingsafetyimprovementstrategiesonreactiontoindividualaccidentsastheyoccurred,policyformulationwasable,forthefirsttime,tobedrivenbyharddatagatheredoverextendedperiodsoftime.Sopreciseareasofriskcouldbeidentified,quantifiedandprioritisedfordetailedtreatment.Accidentcausalfactorsandmitigationstrategiescouldalsobeidentifiedgeographically:strategiescouldbederivedandappliedglobally,regionally,nationallyoratoperatorlevel.Atthesametime,theexchangeanddisseminationofdatabecameeasier.TheUSCommercialAviationSafetyTeam(CAST),whichwentintooperationin1998ledbytheFederalAviationAdministration,wasthefirstnationalorganisationthatsetouttoidentifysafetyprioritiesandcreateanactionplan.EuropewashardonitsheelswithitsStrategicSafetyInitiative(ESSI),andregionallyallovertheworldsimilarsystemsarenowinplace.Althoughtherewe...