中国生猪周期理论与模式评估及生猪价格预测作者：RobinD’ArcyGaryStorey2000年6月加拿大农业咨询有限公司北京项目办公室北京朝阳区农展北路55号503-505室---本文来源于网络，仅供参考，勿照抄，如有侵权请联系删除---摘要.....................................................................................11.导言.................................................................................51.1问题现状........................................................................51.2研究的必要性....................................................................51.3研究的目的和目标................................................................51.4研究范围界定....................................................................61.5研究提纲........................................................................62文献评述：生猪周期...................................................................82.1导言............................................................................82.2早期文献........................................................................82.3近期文献........................................................................122.4小结............................................................................163文献评述：中国的生猪供给、需求和生猪生产周期.........................................173.1产量、价格和盈利性..............................................................173.2供给方面：饲料..................................................................193.3需求方面：消费方式..............................................................204生猪周期理论与中国生猪市场...........................................................254.1导言............................................................................254.2中国生猪/猪肉市场的形成.........................................................254.3中国生猪市场价格波动和周期形成条件..............................................264.4关于需求与供给波动的模型化过程..................................................264.5中国生猪生产的结构变动与供给的移动..............................................304.6消费者行为变动和需求变动........................................................314.7产业结构变动、生产者行为和供给..................................................324.8中国生猪结构转变及行为方面的模型化..............................................375资料的要求和获得.....................................................................405.1资料的要求......................................................................405.2资料的获得......................................................................406模型估计及分析.......................................................................446.1模型估计........................................................................446.2结果............................................................................466.3附加的中国模型估计..............................................................496.4生猪市场的国际性................................................................517结论.................................................................................53附录1：省级模型回归结果（1987－1997年数据）..............................................55---本文来源于网络，仅供参考，勿照抄，如有侵权请联系删除---摘要本研究是要分析随着中国向更开放...