基于GIS的沧州市雷暴气象灾害风险评估王文韬高操韩典辰李连祥摘要基于自然灾害风险评估理论，建立以致灾因素危险性、孕灾环境敏感性、灾害承受体脆弱性和防灾抗灾能力为主的评估体系，选取2010—2018年雷暴频次、极大雷电活动频次、自然环境和社会经济等指标，利用GIS分析技术和加权综合评价方法，对沧州市雷暴气象灾害风险进行了评估。结果表明，大面积的雷暴灾害高风险区主要分布在任丘地区、沧州市区、海兴北部地区和黄骅市东南部地区，主要是由于雷暴致灾因子危险性较大;中西部环境敏感性和承载体易损性相对低，导致雷暴灾害发生的风险较低;沧州市区的承载体易损性特别高，市区东部承灾体易损性也较差，导致沧州市区东部的雷暴灾害发生風险高于东部。关键词雷暴气象灾害;GIS分析技术;风险区划;加权综合评价方法;沧州市P446A0517-6611（2020）07-0229-04doi：10.3969/j.issn.0517-6611.2020.07.065RiskAssessmentofMeteorologicalDisastersinHeavyThunderstorminCangzhouCityBasedonGISWANGWentao1，GAOCao1，HANDianchen2etal（1.LimitedCompanyofStatePowerEnvironmentalProtectionResearchInstitute，Nan激ng，激angsu210031;2.CollaborativeInnovationCenteronForecastandEvaluationofMeteorologicalDisasters/激angsuKeyLaboratoryofAgriculturalMeteorology，Nan激ngUniversityofInformationScienceTechnology，Nan激ng，激angsu210044）AbstractBasedontheriskassessmenttheoryofnaturaldisasters，anassessmentsystemisestablished，whichmainlyincludestheriskofdisastercausingfactors，thesensitivityofdisasterpregnantenvironment，thevulnerabilityofdisasterbearingbodiesandtheabilityofdisasterpreventionandresistance.TheriskofthunderstormmeteorologicaldisastersinCangzhouCityisevaluatedbyusingtheindexoflightfrequency，maximumthunderstormspeed，naturalenvironmentandsocialeconomyfrom2010to2018，usingGISanalysistechnologyandweightedcomprehensiveevaluationmethod.TheresultsshowthatthehighriskareasofthunderstormdisastersinlargeareasaremainlylocatedinRenqiu，Cangzhou，northHaixingandsoutheastHuanghua，mainlyduetothehighriskofgaleinduceddisasters.Theenvironmentalsensitivityandcarriervulnerabilityinthewestcentralregionleadtoalowerriskofgaledisasters.ThevulnerabilityofthebearingbodyinCangzhouCityisparticularlyhigh，andthevulnerabilityofthedisasterbearingbodyintheeasternpartofthecityisalsopoor，resultinginhigherriskofgaledisastersintheeasternpartofCangzhouCitythanintheeasternpart.KeywordsThunderstormmeteorologicaldisasters;GISanalysistechnology;Riskzoning;Weightedcomprehensiveevaluationmethod;CangzhouCity基金项目淮河流域氣象开放研究基金项目（HRM201804）;中国气象局气候变化专项（CCSF201809）。作者简介王文韬（1983—），男，江苏南京人，中级工程师，硕士，从事大气与环境评估研究。通信作者。-全文完-