CHINAUNIVERSITYOEPETROLEUM学业论文ThePriceChangingTrendandInfluencingFactorsofGasolineinChina中国汽油价格的发展趋势及影响因素院系名称：地球物理与信息工程学院专业名称：勘查技术与工程英语班级：学生姓名：黎丁源学号：指导教师：梅丽完成日期2014年6月8日ThePriceChangingTrendandInfluencingFactorsofGasolineinChinaAbstractSince2002,thegrowthofinternationaloilpriceisgoingupsharply.Theoilpricesindifferentareashavechangedatthesametime.Accordingtosomeexperts,Chinesegasolinepriceisaffectedbyperplexing-relatedfactors.ThispaperindicatesthepricechangingtrendofChinaandtheworld;reportstheresultsofastudyontheinfluencingfactors.ThestudyusedthepricesofoilinthepastyearstofindthechangingtrendandusedtheISM(InterpretativeStructuralModeling)toanalysisthefactorsaffectinggasolineprice.Thestudyfoundthatthegasolinepricewasgoingupandwouldnotslowdowninashorttime.Inaddition,theinternationalcrudeoilpriceisthehighestrelatedfactoraffectingChinesegasolineprice.1・IntroductionOilpricehasalwaysbeenanissueinanyperiodforitsgreatimportance.Ineverycountry,peopleoftentalkaboutoilpricewhengatheringtogetherbecauseitbecomesacommontopicrelatedtoourlives.Nowadays,itseemsthatoilpriceiscontrolledbyacomplexnetoffactors.Tnordertofindtheconnectionsbetweenthegasolinepriceandtheinfluencingfactors,theimportantfactorsneedtobestudied.BybuildingtheISMtoanalysisfactors,webelievethattheimmediatecausesarethepriceofinternationaloil,thesupplyofpetroleumproduct,thedemandandthecompetitionofcompanies.Theunderlyingcausesaretheenvironment-protectingpolicy,theimport,thereservesystem,thebunkersurchargeandsmuggle.Thedeeperreasonsincludeexitingalternativeenergysourcesandinternationaltrade.Thepriceofcrudeoilistheprimaryone(Wang,2012).Weallknowitwillbedifferentindifferentplace.Forexample,inSichuan,theimmediatecausesarethedemand,supplyandcompetitionoftheoilmarket.BybuildingtheISM,theycouldstabilizetheprice,establishagoodmarketorder(YuZhang,2001).Infact,thepriorityistoprovidesomepoliciestomakeeverythingseemright(WangQuLv,2006).However,theTSMcouldnotcontainallthefactors,westillcannotgetthemostrightconnections.Itcanalmostindicatethetrendandwebelievethedataisavailable.Thispaperattemptstoanswerthefollowingquestions:—♦—Gasolineprice(Dollarsperliter)1.What^sthetrendofoilprice?What7ethedifferenceandconnectionbetweenChinaandtheworldinoilpricechangingtrend?2.Whataretheinfluencingfactors?Dotheyhavesomethingincommon?What^stheconnection?Whichisthemostimportantandhighestrelatedone?3.Howcanwegetridofthepricerisk?ThepricechangingtrendofChinaandtheworldispresentedinpartII.InpartIII,abriefviewoftheISMispresented.InpartIV,thestudiesofrepresentativefactorsarecarriedout.InpartVtheprioritycausewillbediscussedandabriefconclusionispresentedinSectionVI.2・ThepricechangingtrendComparingthepriceofgasolineinChinaandtheworld,wecanfullyunderstandthepricechangingtrendandtheconnectionbetweenothers.Table1showsthegasolinepriceinChinafrom2002to2012.Year200220042006200820102012Price0.420.480.690.991」11.37Table1:gasolinepriceinChinafrom2002—2012Byusingtheexcel,wecangetthepricetrendofthegasolineinChinafrom2002to2012asfollows.Figure1:gasolinepriceinChinafrom2002-2012Table2showsthegasolinepriceintheworldfrom2002to2012.Year200220042006200820102012Price0.60.811.11.21.4Table2:gasolinepriceintheworldfrom2()()—2012Byusingtheexcelaswell,wecangetthepricetrendofthegasolineintheworldfrom20...