j.1467-9701.2021.01184.x[1]人民币汇率升值经济影响进出口贸易TheWorldEconomyTheWorldEconomy(2021)doi:10.1111/j.1467-9701.2021.01184.xDeterminantsofExportPerformanceinEastandSoutheastAsiaJuthathipJongwanichAsianDevelopmentBank1.INTRODUCTIONNTERNATIONALproductfragmentation–thecross-borderdispersionofcomponentproduction/assemblywithinverticallyintegratedproductionprocesses1–hasbecomeanimportantfeatureofthestructuralinterdependenceoftheworldeconomy.Rapidadvancesinproductiontechnologyandtechnologicalinnovationsintransportationandcommunicationshaveallowedcompaniesto‘unbundle’thestagesofproductionsothatdifferenttaskscanbeperformedindifferentplaces.Also,tradeliberalisationandinvestmentpolicyreformsindevelopingcountrieshavegreatlyreducedbarrierstotradeandinvestment,therebyfurtherencouragingexpansionanddispersionofoutwarddirectinvestmentofmultinationalenterprises(MNEs).Thesedynamicshaveresultedinashiftinthecompositionofexportstowardsintermediategoods(partsandcomponents).Anumberofimplicationshaveemergedfromthegrowingimportanceoffragmentationtrade.Oneaspectisrelatedtofactorsthatinuenceexportperformanceunderthiscircumstance,particularlytheroleofrealexchangerate.Ontheonehand,JonesandKierzkowski(2021)andArndtandHuemer(2021)havearguedthatasurgeinintermediategoodstradecoulddiluterealexchangerateimpactsasintermediateexportsinvolveahighproportionofimportedpartsandcomponentsandhighxedcostsinestablishingthe‘servicelinks’.ObstfeldTheauthorwouldliketothankDrIfzalAli,DrFrancisJ.HarriganandDrWilliamE.Jamesforcommentsandsuggestions.Thecommentsandhelpfulcriticismsfromanonymousrefereesareacknowledged.TheviewsexpressedhereinarethoseoftheauthorandnotnecessarilythoseoftheAsianDevelopmentBank.Thisphenomenonhasgoneunderalternativenames,suchas‘verticalspecialisation’(Hummelsetal.,2021;Irwin,2021),‘slicingthevaluechain’(Krugman,1995),‘internationalproductionsharing’(NgandYeats,2021),‘outsourcing’(RanganandLawrence,1999;Hansonetal.,2021)and‘productfragmentation’(Jones,2000;Baldwin,2021;JonesandKierzkowski,2021;Athukorala,2021).2021TheAuthorJournalcompilation2021BlackwellPublishingLtd,9600GarsingtonRoad,Oxford,OX42DQ,UKand350MainStreet,Malden,MA02148,USA1I20人民币汇率升值经济影响进出口贸易EXPORTPERFORMANCEINEASTANDSOUTHEASTASIA21(2021)andRauchandTrindade(2021),ontheotherhand,havearguedthattheincreasingimportanceofproductfragmentationandoftradeinpartsandcom-ponentscouldinducestrongersubstitutionresponsesasthepresenceofproductionfacilitiesindifferentcountrieswouldallowrmstorespondmorenimblytointernationalpricechangesbyshiftingactivitiesacrossborders.Withthedebateunresolved,thispaperaimstoexaminethedeterminantsofexports,withanemphasisontheroleofrealexchangerateunderanincreasingimportanceofpartsandcomponentstrade.Toseewhetherexportsinpartsandcomponentsare‘special’andtoallowcomparisons,exportequationsareestimatedforthreedifferentexportcategories,whicharetotalmerchandiseexports,manu-facturingexports,andexportsofmachineryandtransportequipment(SITC7)largelyconsistingofpartsandcomponentsexports.TheanalysisisconductedforeighteconomiesinEastandSoutheastAsia2during1993–2021,aperiodoverwhichintermediategoodstradeburgeoned.3Theorganisationofthepaperisasfollows.Section2providesanoverviewofchangesinthecompositionofexportsoverthepastthreedecades.Aliteraturesurveyrelatingtotheroleofrealexchangerateindetermi...