02468101214050010001500时间段公众号总量（万）资讯类原始数据指数增长模型阻滞增长模型024681012140100200300400时间段公众号总量（万）生活类原始数据指数增长模型阻滞增长模型024681012140100200300时间段公众号总量（万）娱乐类原始数据指数增长模型阻滞增长模型024681012140100200300时间段公众号总量（万）其他原始数据指数增长模型阻滞增长模型代码：t=1:13;x=[3.04,6.63,11.13,28.43,49.22,87.85,134.11,200.00,208.69,303.03,410.73,580.00,728.57];c=[0.40,0.97,2.31,4.45,7.63,10.11,19.86,33.44,38.03,75.07,112.08,152.39,226.55];d=[2.06,2.35,3.17,8.06,15.22,28.82,43.31,54.67,55.83,75.26,102.01,174.05,200.95];e=[0.54,1.18,1.98,5.06,8.77,15.65,23.89,36.63,37.17,53.98,73.16,123.31,159.78];%指数增长模型y=log(x);cc=log(c);dd=log(d);ee=log(e);a=polyfit(t,y,1);h=polyfit(t,cc,1);i=polyfit(t,dd,1);k=polyfit(t,ee,1);r=a(1);r2=h(1);r3=i(1);r4=k(1);x0=exp(a(2));x1=x0*exp(r*t);c0=exp(h(2));c1=c0*exp(r2*t);d0=exp(i(2));d1=d0*exp(r3*t);e0=exp(k(2));e1=e0*exp(r4*t);%阻滞增长模型f=@(a,t)a(1)./(1+(a(1)/x(1)-1)*exp(-a(2)*(t-t(1))));f=@(h,t)h(1)./(1+(h(1)/c(1)-1)*exp(-h(2)*(t-t(1))));f=@(i,t)i(1)./(1+(i(1)/d(1)-1)*exp(-i(2)*(t-t(1))));f=@(k,t)k(1)./(1+(k(1)/e(1)-1)*exp(-k(2)*(t-t(1))));a=lsqcurvefit(f,[8001],t,x);h=lsqcurvefit(f,[8001],t,c);i=lsqcurvefit(f,[8001],t,d);k=lsqcurvefit(f,[8001],t,e);figure(1);subplot(2,1,1);plot(t,x,'o',t,x1,'r:.');x2=f(a,t);plot(t,x,'o',t,x1,'r:.',t,x2,'g*--')legend('原始数据','指数增长模型','阻滞增长模型',2)xlabel时间段ylabel公众号总量（万）title('资讯类');figure(1)subplot(2,1,2);plot(t,c,'o',t,c1,'r:.');c2=f(h,t);plot(t,c,'o',t,c1,'r:.',t,c2,'g*--')legend('原始数据','指数增长模型','阻滞增长模型',2)xlabel时间段ylabel公众号总量（万）title('生活类');figure(2)subplot(2,1,1);plot(t,d,'o',t,d1,'r:.');d2=f(i,t);plot(t,d,'o',t,d1,'r:.',t,d2,'g*--')legend('原始数据','指数增长模型','阻滞增长模型',2)xlabel时间段ylabel公众号总量（万）title('娱乐类');figure(2)subplot(2,1,2);plot(t,e,'o',t,e1,'r:.');e2=f(k,t);plot(t,e,'o',t,e1,'r:.',t,e2,'g*--')legend('原始数据','指数增长模型','阻滞增长模型',2)xlabel时间段ylabel公众号总量（万）title('其他');参数资讯类生活类娱乐类其他类公众号总量05101520250100200300400500600700800xe各个领域公众号对比图公众号总量资讯类生活类娱乐类其他类程序代码：x=[1:2:26]';y=[3.04,6.63,11.13,28.43,49.22,87.85,134.11,200.00,208.69,303.03,410.73,580.00,728.57]';b=[2.04,2.14,3.68,10.86,17.60,33.27,47.05,75.26,77.66,88.72,123.48,130.25,141.29]';c=[0.40,0.97,2.31,4.45,7.63,10.11,19.86,33.44,38.03,75.07,112.08,152.39,226.55]';d=[2.06,2.35,3.17,8.06,15.22,28.82,43.31,54.67,55.83,75.26,102.01,174.05,200.95]';e=[0.54,1.18,1.98,5.06,8.77,15.65,23.89,36.63,37.17,53.98,73.16,123.31,159.78]';st_=[500300.2];ft_=fittype('a0/(1+b0*exp(-k0*(x-1)))',...'dependent',{'y'},'independent',{'x'},...'coefficients',{'a0','b0','k0'});cf_=fit(x,y,ft_,'Startpoint',st_)plot(cf_,'fit',0.95);holdon,plot(x,y,'ro')f1t_=fittype('a1/(1+b1*exp(-k1*(x-1)))',...'dependent',{'b'},'independent',{'x'},...'coefficients',{'a1','b1','k1'});c1f_=fit(x,b,f1t_,'Startpoint',st_)plot(c1f_,'fit',0.95);holdon,plot(x,b,'g*')f2t_=fittype('a2/(1+b2*exp(-k2*(x-1)))',...'dependent',{'c'},'independent',{'x'},...'coefficients',{'a2','b2','k2'});c2f_=fit(x,c,f2t_,'Startpoint',st_)plot(c2f_,'fit',0.95);holdon,plot(x,c,'b+')f3t_=fittype('a3/(1+b3*exp(-k3*(x-1)))',...'dependent',{'d'},'independent',{'x'},...'coefficients',{'a3','b3','k3'});c3f_=fit(x,d,f3t_,'Startpoint',st_)plot(c3f_,'fit',0.95);holdon,plot(x,d,'*')f4t_=fittype('a4/(1+b4*exp(-k4*(x-1)))',...'dependent',{'e'},'independent',{'x'},...'coefficients',{'a4','b4','k4'});c4f_=fit(x,e,f4t_,'Startpoint',st_)plot(c4f_,'fit',0.95);holdon,plot(x,e,'yo')
