Modelsofsolarenergeticparticlefluxes-themainrequirem航天,航天器,航天器环境,空间辐射AdvancesinSpaceResearch36(2021)2021–2021/locate/asrModelsofsolarenergeticparticleuxes:ThemainrequirementsandthedevelopmentprospectsN.V.Kuznetsov,R.A.Nymmik*,M.I.PanasyukSkobeltsynInstituteofNuclearPhysics,MoscowStateUniversity,VorobjovyGory,Moscow119992,RussiaReceived19October2021;receivedinrevisedform5May2021;accepted27September2021AbstractThemodelsofsolarenergeticparticles(SEP)areintendedforcalculatingtheprotonuencesandpeakuxes,whichareexpectedtooccurforagivenperiodatanyknownorpredictedsolaractivitylevelandtoexceedtheircalculatedsizeswithinagivenprob-ability.AnySEPmodelshouldreecttheobjectivereality,includingtheregularfeaturesinherenttotheparticles.Therequirementsareformulated,whichhavetobemetbythepresent-daymodelsaimedatpredictingtheSEPuxesinthespacecrafttrajectoriesasaccuratelyaspossible.Particularattentionispaidtoanalyzingthefactorsthatcausethemostfrequentdecienciesofthepresent-daysolarenergeticparticleuxmodels.2021COSPAR.PublishedbyElsevierLtd.Allrightsreserved.Keywords:Solarenergeticparticles;SEPuxmodels;Modelrequirements;Modeldevelopmentprospects1.IntroductionThesolarenergeticparticle(SEP)models,likeanymodelthatdescribesthenaturalphenomenon,shouldreecttheobjectivereality,includingtheregularfea-turesinherenttothereality.Themodelsmustbedevel-oped,ifpossible,intermsoftheconceptsandbehavioralfeaturesthatareclosetothephysicalessenceofamod-elednaturalphenomenon.Thisprerequisiteimpliesthat:sincetheSEPuxoccurrenceintheEarthsorbitisassociatedwithaparticulareventofparticlegenera-tionandejectioninthesolarchromosphere,eachoftheoccurrences(calledaSEPevent)mustberegardedasresultingfromacertainsingleeventthatoriginatesontheSun;*Correspondingauthor.Tel.:+7959328861;fax:+7959395034.E-mailaddress:nymmik@sinp.msu.ru(R.A.Nymmik).sincetheSEPeventoccurrenceprobabilitydependsonsolaractivity,themodelsmustpredicttheSEPuxesasdependentonanysolaractivitylevel.ThedependenceofSEPeventoccurrencefrequencyonsolaractivityisasmoothcontinuousfunction;theexperimentaldataindicateneitherathresholdeect,noranabruptjumplikevariation,noraplateau;sincetheSEPdistributionfunctionbelongstotherangeofthedistributionfunctionsofothersolarimpulseevents(theradio(Fitzerreiteretal.,1976),X-ray(Crosbyetal.,1993),andgamma-ray(Luetal.,1993)ares),whichhavebeenproperlystudiedandarepower-lawfunctions,itisquiteobvioustoassumethattheSEPdistributionisalsodescribedbyapower-lawfunction.Becauseofthelimitedsolarenergetics,thepower-lawdistributionfunctionscan-notextenduptoinnityasthesolarimpulseevent(includingSEPevents)sizeincreases,butmustsueraturno,whichisjustobservedactually(Luetal.,1993;Xapsosetal.,1998,1999;Nymmik,1999a);0273-1177/$302021COSPAR.PublishedbyElsevierLtd.Allrightsreserved.doi:10.1016/j.asr.2021.09.021航天,航天器,航天器环境,空间辐射2021N.V.Kuznetsovetal./AdvancesinSpaceResearch36(2021)2021–2021sincetheSEPimpactisafunctionoftheparticleenergy(theenergytransfertomatterandthecross-sectionsforinelasticinteractionsareenergy-depen-dent),theparticleux,asamodeloutput,mustbeknownforanyenergy,i.e.,wemustdeterminethecontinuousdierentialSEPenergyspectrathatsuitanyfurtheron-lineanalysis;sincemanyoftheradiationeectsdependontheheavyparticleux,theSEPmodelsmustincludenotonlyprotons,butalsoallsolarheavyions;sincethesolarheavyionuxesarerelativelysma...