China’sEconomicandFinancialOutlookin2H2008Theworldeconomychallengedinthe1H2008Inthefirsthalfyearof2008,beingconfrontedwithextensionofsubprimemortgagecrisisandthesurgeofinternationaloilprices,UStookaseriesofmeasurestocurbtheeconomicrecessionincludingconstantinterestcutsandstrengtheningliquidityinthemarketaswellastaxcutsandsoon.However,thesedidnothelpbeefupthesaggingeconomyinUSandtheworld.Inthefirstfivemonthsof2008,CPIinUSincreasedby4.0%andtheCPIinJunesawayoyincreaseof5.0%.Inflationwasbecomingamobviousproblem.Ontheotherhand,therewasaneconomicgrowthinEuropeduetothatthewarmerwinteraheadoftheyearcausedtheinvestmentofconstructionindustrytomount.However,theinflationpressurewasintenseaswellinEurope.TheCPIinMayincreasedby3.7%,whichwasthehighestforthepastsixteenyears.ForJapan,withtheweakeningUSdollarandtheslowdownofUSeconomy,Japaneseeconomy,whichwascalled“islandnation’seconomy”beingsusceptibletointernationaleconomicmovements,waschallenged.ThesubprimemortgagecrisisinUSwasalsoexpandingswiftlyintoJapanwhoseborrowingcostisamongthelowestintheworld.ThecreditsqueezeandinvestmentcutsinhousingindustryandsoonweremajoraftermathsofsubprimeloancrisisinJapan.Othernewlyemergingeconomiesintheworldinthe1H2008sawgoodincreaseinGDP,e.g.Russia8.5%,Brazil5.8%,China10.6%,Vietnam7.4%etc.However,withtheongoingweakeningofUSdollar,therisingofinternationalenergyandfood(cereals)prices,thedevelopingeconomiesarefacingnewchallengesinexportsandimportedinflation.Vietnamsufferedthemostininflation(25.2%CPIincreasein1H)whichwasthehighestforthepast13years.Theglobaleconomywillcontinuetoslowdowninthe2H2008Ononehand,theaftermathofUSsubprimeloancrisiswillgodeeperandtheUSislikelytosufferthesecondroundofhousingindustryrecession.Theoilandfoodpriceswillcontinuetosoar.Andtheweakeningdollarwillenhancetheglobalplethoraofliquidity(esp.fromUSandstrongwesterneconomiesintonewdevelopingmarkets).Withoutnewmomentumintheworldeconomy,theworldwillseeacontinuousslowdownineconomy.AsforUS,expansionofsubprimeloancrisis,creditsqueeze,escalatingunemploymentratio,investmentcutsandstockmarketdownturn,risingoilandfoodpricewhichattackedautoindustryetcarechallengingUSeconomy.Nevertheless,USisnotgoingtoexperiencesevereeconomicrecessionbecauseUShastheperfectmacro-controlsystemandseriesofmeasuresarebeingtakenincluding,taxcuts,interestcuts,investmentandfunding,increaseofcreditlineetc.ThroughongoingweakeningofUSdollar,riskwastransferredgloballyandothernationswillbearthepressureofUSeconomicadjustment(theweakdollarwillboostUSexports,meanwhilehotmoneyandinvestmentintootherdevelopingmarketswillincrease,whichcauseshighliquidity).ForEuropeandJapan,duetosimilarreasonse.g.soaringoilandfoodprices,theinflationpressure---本文于网络，仅供参考，勿照抄，如有侵权请联系删除---wasconstant.TheECBhasraisedthebenchmarkrateto4.25%,whichcurbedinvestmentandspending.ThestrongEurowillinfluencetheexports.ThePMIinJunerusheddownto49.2,lowerthanthebenchmarkof50.0.Inthe2H2008,JapancouldcontinuethelongestperiodofeconomygrowthsinceFeb2002ifJapan’srealestateconstructionindustrycouldreceivemoreinvestmentin2Handinternaldemandsweretobettermetonthebasisofshrinkingtheeconomicgapbetweencityandruralareasaswellasdifferentsociallevels.Fornewlyemergingeconomies,thestronggrowthoftheseeconomiesareconsideredtobethezonewheretheworldeconomyislikelytosoftlyland.Becausether...