AfterthereformonRMBexchangeratefluctuationsonthemacroeconomicimpactoftheasymmetryofPaperstowriteNet:Abstract:AfterthereformonRMBexchangeratefluctuationsisdividedinto‘highvolatility’and‘lowvolatility’ofthetwostates,establishedwithaMarkovstatetransitionvectorautoregressionmodeltoidentifytheRMBexchangeratefluctuationsinthe‘highvolatility’and‘lowvolatility’stateanditscorrespondingcharacteristics,andempiricaltestingofthespotexchangerateofRMBfluctuationsinthedifferentconditionsthatexistonthemacroeconomicimpact.Exchangeratefluctuationsonmacroeconomicstudieshavefoundthereisaclearasymmetry,theresultsshowthatmaintainingtheRMBexchangerate‘lowvolatility’statetohelpChina’seconomicgrowth,whilemaintainingthe‘highvolatility’state,itwillhelpreducetheappreciationoftheRMBtobringdomesticinflationarypressures.Keywords:RMBexchangeratefluctuations,MS-1VARI.IntroductionThiswillbeafterthereformofRMBexchangeratefluctuationsisdividedinto‘highvolatility’and‘lowvolatility’ofthetwostates,theestablishmentofaMarkovstatetransitionwithaVARmodeltoidentifytheRMBexchangeratefluctuations‘highvolatility’and‘lowvolatility‘stateanditscorrespondingcharacteristics,andempiricaltestingofthespotexchangerateofRMBfluctuationsinthedifferentstatesofthemacroeconomicimpactoftheexistenceofnon-symmetry.Second,theempiricalmodel:MarkovstatetransitionwithaVARmodelAssuminglong-termpurchasingpowerparityholds,thenthefollowingformula:et=pt-p*t①WhichetisthespotexchangerateofRMBagainsttheU.S.dollar(indirectquotation,pt-p*ttheinflationindexfortheUnitedStatesafterthelogarithmicdifference.Further,supposethetwocountriesinthemoneymarketequilibrium,thatthefollowingform:mt+vt=pt+yt②m*t+v*t=p*t+y*t③2Whichmtandm*tfortheU.S.moneysupply,respectively,thelogarithm,vtandv*tarethevelocityofmoneyonU.S.values,ytandy*tarethelogarithmofU.S.outputwould②typeminus③type,andassumethatthevelocityofthetwocurrenciesareequal,youget:mt-m*t=pt-p*t+yt-y*t④①④withstyleandtype,andtoconsidertheactualpurchasingpowerparitybetweenthetwocountriesdoesnothold,sotheevidence,wehavethenecessarydifferencebetweenthetwoinflationfactorsintotheempiricalmodel,thengetthefollowingempiricalequation:et=c+@(mt-m*t)+β(yt-y*t+γ(pt-p*tεt⑤Sowebuildonthevectorxt=(et,mt-m*t,pt-p*t,yt-y*t‘ofMSMH-VAR(Pmodel:ΔXt-a(St=v+At(Δxt-1-a(St)+A2(Δxt-2-a(St))+...+Ap(Δxt-pa(St))+utut~NID(0,Σ(St))⑥Inwhichvtistheinterceptvector,utistheerrorvector,andut~NID(0,Σ),Ai(i=1,...,p)forthecoefficientvector,pisthelagorder.A(St)indifferentstateseconomicvariablesunderthemean,Σ(St)indifferentstatesforthevarianceoftheerrorvectorinthisarticle,wewillstateisdividedinto‘highvolatility’stateand‘lowvolatility’state,andassume3thatStisasetofsubordinateMarcoCardiffchainofdiscreterandomvariables,themainfeatureis,StisequaltotheprobabilityofavaluejaffectedbythepastwiththerecentSt-1onlythevalueoftheeconomicsystemfromthedistrictsystemonthephasedownperioditransitionprobabilitiesofthevarioussystemandequalto1:P{St=j|St-1=i,St-2=k,...}=P{St=j|St-1=i}=Pij⑦Andpi1+pi2+...+pim=1⑧OrthatthetransitionprobabilitiesmatrixP:p...p┆?Xun┆p...p,p=1,?dusti,j∈{1,...,m},m=2⑨MSmodelsaregiventhesimpleideaof??parameterestimationbyequation(6shows,thedistributiondependsontimeΔxtΔXt-1,themeanvectorofa(St)andvariancematrixΣ(St).IftheeconomicsystemisinadistrictsystemSt=i,thenΔxttheconditionaldistributionfunc...