AnalysisofthemoneysupplyimpactontheCPIandGDPAbstract:China’sspecificconditions,byempiricalfindings,longtermchangesinmoneysupplyandpriceshaveasignificantrelationshipwithchangesinoutputisnotnecessarilyrelated,sothemoneyisneutralinthelongrun,outputchangesmainlydeterminedbytherealsectorfactors,whilebothintheshortorlongterm,changesinmoneysupplywillhaveanimpactonprices.theuseofour1978-2008annualdata,fromtheM0moneysupplyperspective,theestablishmentofdistributedlagmodel,analysisofdynamicM0moneysupplyofChina’seconomicdevelopment.Keywords:inflation;moneysupply;economicgrowth1IntroductionWiththespreadoftheinternationalfinancialcrisis,China’seconomyfromthesecondhalfof2008asharpdecline,althoughourgovernmenthastakenstrongmeasures,butastrongreboundintheeconomyhasyettoentertheroadfromthepricepointofview,sinceApril2007,residentsof1Chinarisinggeneralpricelevelin2007,annualCPIindexrose4.8%inFebruary2008CPIindexup8.7%,arecordhigh.thenextfewmonthstheCPIandPPIfellsharply,hasbeennegativeforseveralmonths,asInJuly2009,CPIfell1.8%PPIdown8.2%.AtthesametimehighmoneysupplystabilizationoftheendofJuly2009,broadmoneysupply(M2)amountedto57.3trillionyuan,up28.42%,anincreaseoverthepreviousyearby10.6percent,0.03percentagepointslowerthanthepreviousmonthend;narrowmoneysupply(M1)amountedto19.59trillionyuan,up26.37percent,1.6percentagepointsfromthepreviousmonth;marketcurrencyincirculation(M0)amountedto3.42trillionyuan,anincreaseof11.59%,whileChina’sdependenceonforeignexpansionofinternalandexternalimbalances,thevirtualeconomyhasbeenexpanding,thecentralbankbasemoneypassively.monetarygrowthraterose,althoughnottheonlycauseofinflation,butcloselylinkedtotheincreaseinmoneysupply,forcingtheaggregatedemand‘initiativetoincrease.’particularlyinthepromotionofassetprices,andthentransmittedtothefoodpricesandcauseinflation,severeinflationwillformagreatimpactonthe2macroeconomy,therebyaffectingeconomicgrowth.2Westonthemoneysupplyandeconomicgrowth,inflation,theanalysisWesterneconomicsisgenerallybelievedthat:moneydoesnotoccuronanysubstantiveeconomicimpact,doesnotaffectrealeconomicvariables,moneyisneutral,ormoneyisnotneutral,butWesterneconomistsunderstandthecurrency-neutralextent,isnotexactlythesame.representativepointsare:(1)theclassicalschoolofmonetaryneutralityadvocatesonthemoneyeconomyisjustkindofmutualexchangeoftherealeconomy,monetaryexchangeofgoodsonlytotheroleofthemediaoverChengZhongqi,ontherealeconomysubstantialimpactdoesnotoccur(2)Wicksellmonetarytheoryofnon-neutral,theclassicalquantitytheoryofcriticismoftheconceptof‘naturalrate’ofthenotionthatmoneyisanimportantfactoraffectingtheeconomy,mainlyduetocurrencyincapitalformationandcapitaltransfersplayanimportantrole.(3)non-neutralKeynesianmonetarytheorythatchangesinmoneysupplyintheshorttermimpactonemployment,output3andrealincomeandothereconomicfactors,butinthelongruntheimpactofpriceandoutputtointerestratesasmoneyhub,toregulatetheeconomythroughmonetarypolicyinthemoneysupply.advocatedbyboththecurrencyimpactontherealeconomy:thecurrencymarket-determinedinterestrates,interestratesaffectinvestmentthroughtoaffectaggregatedemand,resultingintotaloutputandtotalemploymentchanges;currencyasanasset,itandotherfinancialassetsinthesubstitutioneffect.(4)thecurrency-neutralneo-classicaltheorythattheinterpretationofmacroeconomicaggregatesisbasedontheoptimalchoiceofasinglepersononthebas...