受雇农民工数量和工资的变化趋势研究［摘要］受雇农民工是农民工中数量最庞大但很少被专门研究的皋木群体，其数量和工资的估计受到既有农民工数量和工资调查研究中统计口径不一致的怵I扰。以微观数据为基础的一致统计口径可以纵向连贯、横向可比地考察受雇农民工数量与工资的变化趋势。研究发现：(1)外出农民工数量已从增长阶段进入基本稳定阶段，其内因是农村劳动年龄人口不断减少，这是城市化和市民化的必然结果。(2)受雇农民工数量总体上虽略有增加，但也已进入相对稳定阶段，而且青年农民工(35周岁以下)的比重在逐年下滑。(3)受雇农民工工资水平虽有显著上涨，但与城镇职工的相对差距却有所扩大。(4)学历工资的阶梯状分布在大专及以上学历阶段呈现跳跃性，且这种跳跃性仍有扩大倾向。研究结果揭示了农民工群体内部的结构性分化，同时也表明了农民工市民化的复杂性和现实困难性。［关键词］受雇农民工；农民工数量；农民工工资；统计口径；青年农民工；工资阈值QuantityandWageTrendsofEmployedMigrantWorkersGuoJiqiangChenMinFeiShulan(Schoolof卩ublicAffairs,ZhejiangUniversity,Hangzhou310058,China)Abstract：Aftermanyyearsofdevelopmentsincethereformandopeningup,migrantworkersbegintohaveinternalstructuraldifferences.Forexample,theincome,capitalandsocialnetworkoftheemployedmigrantworkersaredifferentfromthoseoftheselfemployedmigrantworkers,andyetmostoftheresearcherstreatthemasawhole.Meanwhile,aproblemofstatisticalcriteriainconsistencieshascomeintobeinginthecurrentresearches,whichmakesthedatainconsistentbothsynchronicallyanddiachronically,greatlyreducingtheinformationvalueofthedata・Soitisnecessarytouseconsistentstatisticalcriteriaforstrueturalanalyses.Ourdefinitionoftheemployedmigrant,workersisbasedonasurveybytheNationalBureauofStatistics.ThevariationtrendofthenumbersandearningsoftheemployedmigrantworkerscomefromtheNationalRuralFixedObservationandChinaStatisticalYearbook.Themainfindingsareasfollows：(1)Thenumberofmigrant,workershasstabilized,becausetherisingproportionsofthemigrantworkersandthedecreasingnumberoftheruralworkingagepopulationhavereachedarelativeequilibrium.Theunderlyingreasonisthaturbanizationandcittionhavemadetheruralpopulationdecreasequickly.(2)Thenumberofemployedmigrantworkershasincreasedslowlyandbeginstobecomestable.Onthebackgroundofthestablemigrantworkers,theincreaseofemployedmigrantworkersisduetoahigherproportionofemployment,whichhasrisentoaveryhighdegree.Ontheotherhand,ruraldepopulationcontinues・Therefore,thenumberofmigrantemployedworkerswillalsobestable,anditwillevenreacha"turningpoint."(3)Theproportionofyoungemployedmigrantworkers(undertheageof35)hasbeendecliningyearbyyear.Onereasonisthattheproportionofruralyoungpopulationhasbeenrapidlydeclining,andanotherreasonisthatyoungmigrantworkershavehigheremploymentexpectations,whichincreasestheirdifficuItyinfindingjobs.(4)Theearningofemployedmigrantworkershasasignificantriseanditwillcontinuetoincrease,buttheirearningsarelowerthantheaverageofallthemigrantworkers・Inaddition,therelativegapbetweenurbanworkers且ndemployedmigrantworkershasnotnarroweddown,whichmakestheproblemofinequalityworse.(5)Thereisasignificantearninggapbetweentheonewithahighschooldiplomaandtheonewithacollegedegree,andthegapisstillwidening.Thispaperprovidesrelativelyaccurateinformationforstudyingemployedmigrant,workers,andthefindingscontributetoabetterunderstandingofthestructureofthemigrantworkers.Itishopedthatfurtherresearcheswillbecarriedoutinthisarea.Keywords:employedmigrantworkers；numberofinigrantworkers；earningo...